It’s that time of year again for my Oscar predictions. My
confidence is low this year. For best picture there are four or five viable
options in my opinion; it’s not a slam dunk like last year. I’ve seen six of
the ten nominations (Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unkown,
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked)
but feel that will be enough for my predictions this year. We’ll have to
wait and see. Just as a reminder, I’m not predicting who I want to win but who I think the Academy will vote for. From ‘smaller’ to ‘bigger’, here we go:
LIVE ACTION SHORT
FILM
A LIEN
(It deals with the hot
button immigration issue.)
ANIMATED SHORT
FILM
WANDER TO WONDER
(It won some previous
awards so I’ll go with this.)
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
THE ONLY GIRL IN
THE ORCHESTRA
(It’s on Netflix and it’s
about a humble unheralded person. Oscar likes this)
SOUND
DUNE: PART TWO
(Dune won last time and this one has more action and gladiator
crowds.)
ORIGINAL SCORE
CONCLAVE
(I like the tension made
with the score. I think it edges out The
Brutalist.)
ORIGINAL SONG
EL MAL [EMILIA
PEREZ]
(Haven’t heard it but
still think an Emilia song will take
it.)
VISUAL EFFECTS
DUNE: PART TWO
(More sandworms should
beat the apes.)
MAKE-UP &
HAIRSTYLING
THE SUBSTANCE
(The disturbing images
I’ve seen will bring this film the gold.)
COSTUME DESIGN
WICKED
(A lot of creative
costumes over the identical robes of Conclave.)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
WICKED
(The beautiful library and
school grounds are well constructed.)
FILM EDITING
CONCLAVE
(It was tight story as
opposed to slow downs of Anora and Brutalist.)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE BRUTALIST
(There are lots of
creative angles and the architecture is well filmed.)
DOCUMENTARY
FEATURE
PORCELAIN WAR|
(I’ll go with the Ukraine
story over the Israel story of No Other
Land.)
ANIMATED FEATURE
THE WILD ROBOT
(If the silent Flow was a
short, it would win, but I’ll go with the kid’s story.)
INTERNATIONAL FILM
I’M STILL HERE
[BRAZIL]
(Emilia Perez lost its footing thanks to recent comment scandals.)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CONCLAVE
(This was a compelling
story.)
ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY
ANORA
(I think A Real Pain is better but this film
managed to pull me in.)
BEST DIRECTOR
SEAN BAKER [ANORA]
(I think he gets the most
out of his actors and tells a great story.)
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
ZOE SALDANA [EMILIA
PEREZ]
(She has won a bunch and
should finish with the Oscar.)
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTOR
KIERAN CULKIN [A
REAL PAIN]
(He was great and has won
everything else. This is a lock.)
BEST ACTRESS
DEMI MOORE [THE SUBSTANCE]
(Mikey Madison deserves it
but this is a legacy win for Moore.)
BEST ACTOR
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET
[A COMPLETE UNKNOWN]
(Brody already has one and
Timothee worked hard on this performance.)
BEST PICTURE
CONCLAVE
(I think they’ll go with a
‘safer’ film that comments on leadership races.)
I got 20 out of 23 categories last year. I’m not expecting that at all this this year. We’ll see what happens this Sunday.
