My Oscar Predictions

Time for the fearless Oscar predictions. This year the acting categories seem like a slam dunk while the rest of the awards are so varied it’s almost impossible to pick clear winners. Usually you can look at the film with most nominations and plan accordingly, but this year Dreamgirls may have a bunch of noms (thanks to three songs) but no chance at Best Picture. I assume you know the nominees already, so I’ll just predict who I think will win. (Remember, it’s not who I necessarily want to win, but who I think the Academy will vote for) Here goes from smaller awards to the bigger ones.

Live Action Short Film: West Bank Story
(West Side Story with competing fast food chains. Sounds fun.)
Animated Short Film: Lifted
(Made by some guy who keeps winning this award. Why not again?)
Documentary Short: Recycled Life
(The Academy wants to appear environmentally friendly.)
Sound Editing: Flags of Our Fathers
(War movies are difficult to mix sound for.)
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
(They manage to make Eddie Murphy sound even more fantastic than real life.)
Original Score: Babel
(Gotta give it some awards.)
Original Song: “Love You I Do” (Dreamgirls)
(You know it’s gonna be a Dreamgirls song, let’s go with this one.)
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
(Davy Jones tentacles. Need I say more?)
Make Up: Pan’s Labyrinth
(Creature with eyes on his hands, a disfigured general and a faun. C’mon.)
Costume Design: Curse of the Golden Flower
(Period pieces usually win. It seems more elaborate than Dreamgirls.)
Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth
(Something dream like should take the statue.)
Film Editing: Babel
(I think United 93 should win something but it’ll probably go to this one.)
Cinematography: Pan’s Labyrinth
(I do like Children of Men’s chances, but I think they’ll go back to Pan.)
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
(It made a lot of money, and the Academy may want to support Al Gore)
Animated Feature: Cars
(Actually a difficult category this year but I don’t think Pixar will lose)
Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth
(The Lives of Others is supposed to be good, but it’s all Pan.)
Adapted Screenplay: The Departed
(It’d be funny if Borat won but The Departed was pretty sharp.)
Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine
(It’s a runaway hit, especially now that it’s on dvd. It’s bound to win something.)
Best Director: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
(He’s bound to win it now. Unless the Academy enjoys being mean.)
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
(Let’s reward the American Idol girl. It’ll make a fun story.)
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
(There’s always an upset! Eddie Murphy is favoured but people love grandpa.)
Best Actress: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
(My most confident prediction. I will be dumfounded if she loses this one.)
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
(Another almost sure thing. He’s been winning everything lately.)
Picture: Babel
(Little Miss Sunshine may provide the big upset this year. I would be overjoyed that a comedy gets some long overdue attention, but I think Babel is the type of film that the Academy would usually go for. And while I love The Departed, it seems too gritty for the majority of the Academy voter’s taste.)

So let’s see how I do on Sunday. Who are you predicting? Feel free to comment and laugh if you think I’m way off.

The Movie Onslaught, Part III

I’m directing The Crucible right now and performances start next week. This is why I haven’t written lately and why this entry will be a bit shorter. Being crazy busy, I have only been able to see a couple of films so far this year, but here’s my one cents worth.

With Closer and Inside Man and now with Children of Men, I am loving the work of Clive Owen. This guy can play broken, sardonic, and romantic all at the same time without breaking a sweat. The rest of the cast is peppered with equally brilliant actors: Michael Caine, Julianne Moore and Serenity’s Chiwetel Ejiofor (try pronouncing that name). The plot of Children of Men is both moving and action-packed under the careful direction of Alfonso Cuaron (Y tu mama tambien, Harry Potter 3). I found the contrast between the respect and the disdain for human life compelling. This was a wonderful start to the new year, and I highly recommend this film to all. I think it’ll also get you talking long after the credits roll.

Okay, so Brick came out over a year ago, got lost in the theatre, and is now on dvd. I am glad someone reminded me to watch it. This film did an amazing job of capturing film noir in a present-day school setting. The filming was fun and quirky, the dialogue was over-the-top but fitting and the acting coming from Joseph Gordon-Levitt was pitch-perfect. Who would of thought this Third Rock from the Sun boy could actually act? Watching the film I was reminded of Gus Van Sant’s Elephant with all its walking and waiting filled with teen angst. I think this film is perfect for those interested in studying film, the budget is very modest and it tells a compelling story while paying homage to a specific film genre. My only recommendation is to watch the film with the English subtitles turned on so that you can catch the playful banter the first time around.

I wasn’t going to go see The Queen at first. Not a big fan of the royal family, British parliament or even Princess Di for that matter. I heard the raves about Helen Mirren (how could you not?) but didn’t feel like seeing a boring film with a great performance. I was wrong. I found myself intrigued with the story behind the dealing with Princess Diana’s death. And while I was captivated by Helen Mirren’s amazing performance, I was equally mesmerized by Michael Sheen’s portrayal of Tony Blair. It actually made me annoyed that Sheen wasn’t nominated for an Oscar, as he clearly holds his own in scenes with Mirren. Despite the slow pacing, the story itself is well told and surprisingly fair and balanced. It was a good film, not a great film, not worthy of a Best Picture nomination but definitely worth the performances.

Oscars are coming up, so I’ll have my predictions next week. Then I’ll write some stuff about the television season including the return of Lost, the addictiveness of House, the brilliance of Heroes, the danger of Studio 60 and the lure of an amazing show called Dexter.