Oscar Prediction 2026

 

It’s that time of year again for my Oscar predictions. I got 14 out of 23 last year which was not great. While I was more confident earlier when the nominations were announced, some recent award wins have blown some categories wide open. I’ve seen all the best picture nominees except The Secret Agent. Here’s hoping for the best. Unlike other award predications I’m not predicting who I want to win but who I think the Academy will vote for. From ‘smaller’ to ‘bigger’, here we go:

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA
(Most cinematic of the nominees. Just a guess.)

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
BUTTERFLY
(Holocaust survivor, Olympics, oil painting animation. Sure.)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS
(School shootings still hit hard. And it’s on Netflix.)

SOUND
F1
(Race cars go zoom.)

ORIGINAL SCORE
SINNERS
(That bluesy twang just works so well.)

ORIGINAL SONG
GOLDEN [KPOP DEMON HUNTERS]
(I want Sinners’ “I Lied to You” but got give one to the kids out there.)

VISUAL EFFECTS
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
(I would love Jurassic to upset but this one is bound to win.)

MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
FRANKENSTEIN
(Can’t deny the amazing monster make-up and hairdos.)

COSTUME DESIGN
SINNERS
(I think I’ll go with the smart suits over gothic Victorian.)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
FRANKENSTEIN
(Del Toro always fills his sets with stylistic and tonal eye candy.)

FILM EDITING
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(The road scene and long take rooftop scenes are expertly done.)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
SINNERS
(One Battle had the road and roof scenes but Sinners was better overall.)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
(Use of body cam footage will connect to recent ICE incidents for voters.)

ANIMATED FEATURE
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
(This was darn entertaining.)

INTERNATIONAL FILM
SENTIMENTAL VALUE [NORWAY]
(The Academy loves a film about the film industry and sad family drama.)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(This is pretty much a shoo-in. An awesome script from PTA.)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
SINNERS
(This is Coogler’s consolation prize for not getting director.)  

BEST DIRECTOR
PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON [ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER]
(He’s been waiting a while to get one and deserves it.)

BEST CASTING
SINNERS
(This is how they can recognize Delroy Lindo and Miles Caton.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WUNMI MOSAKU [SINNERS]
(Just don’t think Weapons will get anything. Sinners is on the rise.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
STELLAN SKARSGARD [SENTIMENTAL VALUE]
(Sean Penn already has a couple. Stellan needs one now.)

BEST ACTRESS
JESSIE BUCKLEY [HAMNET]
(Probably the only lock in the acting categories. She was great.)

BEST ACTOR
MICHAEL B JORDAN [SINNERS]
(His SAG win catapulted him to the top; I’m tired of Timothee.)

BEST PICTURE
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(I just don’t think a vampire film will break through, unfortunately.)

.We’ll see what happens this Sunday.