Oscar Predictions 2025

 

It’s that time of year again for my Oscar predictions. My confidence is low this year. For best picture there are four or five viable options in my opinion; it’s not a slam dunk like last year. I’ve seen six of the ten nominations (Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unkown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked) but feel that will be enough for my predictions this year. We’ll have to wait and see. Just as a reminder, I’m not predicting who I want to win but who I think the Academy will vote for. From ‘smaller’ to ‘bigger’, here we go:

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
A LIEN
(It deals with the hot button immigration issue.)

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WANDER TO WONDER
(It won some previous awards so I’ll go with this.)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA
(It’s on Netflix and it’s about a humble unheralded person. Oscar likes this)

SOUND
DUNE: PART TWO
(Dune won last time and this one has more action and gladiator crowds.)

ORIGINAL SCORE
CONCLAVE
(I like the tension made with the score. I think it edges out The Brutalist.)

ORIGINAL SONG
EL MAL [EMILIA PEREZ]
(Haven’t heard it but still think an Emilia song will take it.)

VISUAL EFFECTS
DUNE: PART TWO
(More sandworms should beat the apes.)

MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING
THE SUBSTANCE
(The disturbing images I’ve seen will bring this film the gold.)

COSTUME DESIGN
WICKED
(A lot of creative costumes over the identical robes of Conclave.)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
WICKED
(The beautiful library and school grounds are well constructed.)

FILM EDITING
CONCLAVE
(It was tight story as opposed to slow downs of Anora and Brutalist.)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE BRUTALIST
(There are lots of creative angles and the architecture is well filmed.)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
PORCELAIN WAR|
(I’ll go with the Ukraine story over the Israel story of No Other Land.)

ANIMATED FEATURE
THE WILD ROBOT
(If the silent Flow was a short, it would win, but I’ll go with the kid’s story.)

INTERNATIONAL FILM
I’M STILL HERE [BRAZIL]
(Emilia Perez lost its footing thanks to recent comment scandals.)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CONCLAVE
(This was a compelling story.)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANORA
(I think A Real Pain is better but this film managed to pull me in.)  

BEST DIRECTOR
SEAN BAKER [ANORA]
(I think he gets the most out of his actors and tells a great story.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ZOE SALDANA [EMILIA PEREZ]
(She has won a bunch and should finish with the Oscar.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
KIERAN CULKIN [A REAL PAIN]
(He was great and has won everything else. This is a lock.)

BEST ACTRESS
DEMI MOORE [THE SUBSTANCE]
(Mikey Madison deserves it but this is a legacy win for Moore.)

BEST ACTOR
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET [A COMPLETE UNKNOWN]
(Brody already has one and Timothee worked hard on this performance.)

BEST PICTURE
CONCLAVE
(I think they’ll go with a ‘safer’ film that comments on leadership races.)

I got 20 out of 23 categories last year. I’m not expecting that at all this this year. We’ll see what happens this Sunday.